Concern grows over Pakistan's reliability as partner in anti-terrorist struggle

Ahmed Rashid 4/29/04

Questions concerning Pakistan's stability, and its potential reliability as a partner is the ongoing struggle to contain Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, are being fueled by recent moves by President Pervez Musharraf that appear to enhance the military's role in the country's political life.

Musharraf sparked a political uproar after telling the British Broadcasting Corp. on April 13 that he was undecided as to whether he would relinquish control over the army by the end of the year. ‘'This is a very contentious issue. We have to see. We have to wait and see," His statements contradicted a pledge made last December to resign as army chief by the end of 2004, as well as to grant greater authority to a civilian government elected in 2002.

While some political analysts see Musharraf's comments as a bid to retain total control over the army and the political process even if he does shed his uniform, others interpret them as the army's decision to ensure permanent institutional control over civilians. Whatever the case, the comments have left Prime Minister Zafrullah Jamali's government in limbo. The usually pliant Jamali said the final decision was Musharraf's to make. But the announcement left other cabinet members divided, and stunned many parliamentarians from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML). Opposition parties, meanwhile, expressed outrage over the possibility that the president may backtrack on his December pledge.

PML politicians are becoming increasingly frustrated. ‘'Members of parliament have never felt more powerless, useless and sidelined," says a PML member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly. Members of the bureaucracy are equally frustrated, as some 600 retired and serving military officers still occupy top slots in ministries, state-run corporations and even universities.

Several senior retired generals expressed concern about a growing popular perception that the military is impeding the return of civilian rule, suggesting that if the trend persists, the military's stature could be damaged. Retired Brigadier A.R.Siddiqi writing in April 19 edition of the Dawn newspaper, worried that the "raging debate" could undermine "the institutional soundness of the army, and the morale of the rank and file."

Of late, Musharraf has assumed a higher political profile, prompting some observers to say he desires to expand, not decrease his authority. For example, the president is reportedly is sitting in on some cabinet meetings alongside Jamali, and he is chairing other ministerial meetings, all of which are normally the prerogative of the prime minister. Senior presidential aides insist Musharraf is not interested in augmenting his powers. Instead, they say, the president's actions are a reflection of his deep frustration over the cabinet's lack of vision. Musharraf is said to believe that only a few ministries are functioning properly, and that parliament is little more than a talking shop.

Some political analysts in Pakistan are puzzled by the timing of Musharraf's actions, saying they have needlessly created controversy at a time when no domestic political force is posing a serious threat to his authority. Indeed, opposition parties, both within and outside of the parliament, have become increasingly fragmented. In addition, Musharraf's actions do little to quell rising worries in the United States and elsewhere about the country's future stability.

A report released in March, titled Pakistan's Future and US Policy Options, characterized Islamabad as a "major source of instability." The report's author, Teresta Schaffer, wrote: "The military's central role in politics in Pakistan is at the heart of the country's troubled prospects." The report, published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, added that military "is likely to retain is dominant role in politics for at least another 5-10 years and possibly longer."

Until recently, the Pakistani military's firm support for the US-led war on terrorism has helped keep international assistance flowing to Islamabad. The Bush administration has generously rewarded Pakistan, canceling roughly $1 billion in debt and rescheduling another $12 billion in outstanding loans. In addition, the United States has pledged about $3 billion in aid over the next five years – although the assistance is contingent on continued Pakistani cooperation in efforts to contain al Qaeda and Taliban militant activity in the region. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In recent weeks, however, there have been signs of tension in US-Pakistani relations. For instance, US diplomats are accusing Musharraf of backsliding on his commitment to contain Pakistani-based Islamic radical groups. A joint US-Pakistan military campaign announced with much fanfare by US generals in February to destroy Islamic militants with a ‘'hammer and anvil strategy" is faltering badly, military observers say. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "The [Pakistani] government is likely to continue its contradictory policies towards Islamic militancy and ... it's links with the extremists in the militant movement," says Schaffer's report.

In two sharp attacks in April, US ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad accused Pakistan of not doing enough to curb the attacks in Afghanistan launched by al Qaeda and Taliban fighters based in Pakistan. Other US diplomats, meanwhile, have sharply criticized some of Musharraf's domestic policies.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has rejected the US criticism. Nevertheless, the army has been clearly rattled. In an apparent move to mollify US concerns, Pakistan says it is considering a US request to send Pakistani troops to Iraq for the protection of UN personnel there. ‘'We are considering that," says Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri.

Editor's Note: Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and the author of two books.

Posted April 29, 2004 © Eurasianet