Islamic State Suicide Bomb Attack in Erbil Raises Stakes in Kurdistan

On November 19, the Islamic State organization dramatically raised the stakes in the group's ongoing conflict with Iraqi and Syrian Kurds by carrying out a suicide car bomb attack on a local government building in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Although the bomber failed to breach the building's perimeter, the attack killed at least six and injured 29 (Rudaw, November 20). It was the worst attack in the Kurdish autonomous region since August 2013, when a suicide bomber killed seven in an attack on the headquarters of the Asayish, the Kurdish internal security organisation, also in Erbil; this attack was purportedly an Islamic State, then the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), attempt to free prisoners being held there (al-Sharq al-Awsat, October 8, 2013). Responsibility for the latest attack was reportedly claimed by the Islamic State in an announcement distributed online on November 21. The statement reportedly identified the bomber as Abdulrahman al-Kurdi, presumably an ethnic Kurd, and gloated that the attack had "breached all the security checkpoints... reached the heart of the city of Erbil" (al-Arabiya, November 21).

The aim of the attack is likely to have been to strike back at the Iraqi Kurdistan government, which since late October has deployed its peshmerga forces in Kobane. Kobane is the Kurdish-majority Syrian town that has been a focus for recent conflict between the Islamic State organization and Kurdish militants, who are backed by U.S.-led international forces. The bomb attack is also likely to be an attempt to undermine local and international confidence in the abilities of the Kurdish government to maintain security in Kurdistan, including business confidence in the economically-fragile region. Investor sentiment in Iraqi Kurdistan had already been badly shaken in August and September when the Islamic State's rapid advance in northern Iraq seemed to threaten Kurdistan; foreign businesses in Iraqi Kurdistan responded rapidly, with international airlines reducing their services and some foreign oil companies scaling back their operations. The latest attack likely intended to dent such confidence further (Bloomberg, August 7; August 13). Moreover, the Islamic State's decision to allegedly use an ethnic Kurd as the bomber, while no doubt partly undertaken for operational reasons, was also likely intended to send a powerful message to both the Kurdish government and its international political, military and economic backers that the Islamic State threat in Kurdistan is not just an external threat; the militant organization also draws on elements within Kurdish society.

Despite this, the net effect of the November 19 bomb attack may be to strength Kurdish and international opposition to the Islamic State organization. In the short term, for example, the attack is likely encourage the various Kurdish groups, many of which are long-standing rivals, to work more closely together. For instance, Masoud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and leader of the Erbil-based Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has traditionally favoured cultivating political and economic links with Turkey in preference to working with the anti-Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkên Kurdistan - PKK), whose offshoots have played the leading role in combating the Islamic State in Syria. The bombing is likely to renew awareness that both the KDP and the PKK face a common threat in the Islamic State organization and to encourage closer co-operation between these long-time foes. Turkey responded to the bombing by reaffirming its ties with Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, visiting Erbil on a pre-planned trip on November 21, two days after the bombing, publicly stressed the important of Turkey-Kurdistan security ties: "Turkey will provide support through any necessary means for the Kurdistan Region's security" (Rudaw, November 21). In a further expression of Turkish solidarity with the Iraqi Kurds, Davutoglu publicly expressed his condolences for the victims of the November 19 bomb attack. Another impact of the attack is likely to be to bolster international support for both the Iraqi Kurdish government and for Kurdish militants in Syria who are on the frontline in the fight against the Islamic State organization; indeed, on the same day as the bombing, Barzani publicly appealed for the international community to supply more heavy weapons to the Kurds. For instance, in an interview the same day as the bombing, he called for the West to supply armored personnel carriers (APCs), helicopters and artillery to Kurdish forces (France24, November 19). On balance therefore, while the Islamic State's successful bomb attack in Erbil has no doubt struck a powerful psychological blow at the Iraqi Kurdish government and its supporters, in the longer-term the attack is likely to further unify the Islamic State's opponents and to cement military and political opposition to the group.

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