Assessment for Russians in Lithuania

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Russians living in Lithuania have virtually no risk of rebellion and only a small likelihood of protest. One factor contributing to this situation is the fact that the group seems to lack important organizational prerequisites needed for collective action. Russians in Lithuania are geographically dispersed (GROUPCON = 0), and they appear to lack political unity and organization. More importantly, however, the current treatment of the group by the government is largely positive.

Although the group exhibited high levels of political protest in the late 1980s and early 1990s in response to Lithuania's declaration of independence, since then the government has adopted a number of positive measures vis-à-vis their Russian minority, and the levels of protest by the group have sharply declined as a result. Overall, Lithuanian law is widely considered the most liberal of the Baltics by international observers with regard to minority rights, and the Russian minority is well represented in both political and social organizations. Other than some educational reform to promote Russian language in Lithuanian schools, nothing more needs to be done to ensure the Russians in Lithuania are happy and secure. Lithuania has also consolidated its democracy, is now a member of the European Union, and has made significant progress in strengthening its economy, which again, decreases the motivation for rebellious action.

Possible problems do loom, however, with the April 1994 decision by the Lithuanian Constitutional Court rendering null and void a law offering citizenship to retired ex-Soviet military personnel. Also a law passed in 1998 prohibiting former KGB employees from holding a number of different jobs in Lithuania, and the continual persecution of all Russians suspected of involvement in the political events that transpired in 1991 in Vilnius create tension between Russians and Lithuanians. Finally, strains in the relationship between Lithuania and the Russian Federation vis-a-vis Kaliningrad could create a volatile political situation, hurting the ethnic relations between Lithuanians and Lithuanian Russians.

Analytic Summary

Geographically dispersed throughout the country (REGIONAL = 0, GROUPCON = 0), Russians living in Lithuania represent a linguistically, culturally and religiously distinct group (ETHNOG = 1, LANG = 1; BELIEF = 3; RELIGS1 = 3; ETHDIFXX = 6). Historically, Russians in Lithuania share similar background with Russians in Estonia and Latvia, though Lithuania has a much more independent history than the two other Baltic states.

Lituania was incorporated into the Russian Empire in 1795, following the final partition of Poland. During the 19th century, Lithuanians experienced severe Russification, instituted by the 1885 decrees of Czar Alexander III. The local nobility had estates confiscated and distributed to the peasants, and the Lithuanian language was repressed. The rural nature of Lithuania limited migration there from Russia. After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Revolutionary government of Soviet Russia ceded the Baltic region to Germany in its armistice. Upon the defeat of Germany in World War I, each of the republics gained full independence, and by 1919 each had functioning sovereign governments. In April 1919, Polish forces entered and established control over the Vilnius region of Lithuania, claiming it as historically Polish territory. In response, the Lithuanian government used the help of the Soviet Russian government in evicting the Poles from the Vilnius region. In October, they signed the Treaty of Suwalki, designating the Vilnius region as Lithuanian; however, the Poles immediately marched back into Vilnius and maintained control until 1939. On August 23, 1939, the Molotov-Ribbentrob Non-Aggression Pact was signed between Germany and the Soviet Union, dividing up Eastern Europe for conquest by the two powers. By the summer of 1940, Soviet troops had seized control of the governments of the Baltic Republics. After World War II, Stalinization led to a policy of heavy industrialization in the Baltics which led to massive immigration of non-Baltic peoples (mainly Russians) into the area. The militarization of these strategically vital republics also contributed to the mass immigration (TRADITN = 5). The immigrants were mostly military and blue-collar workers, and they settled in urban areas taking mostly low-skill, menial labor. This has contributed to a sense of cultural superiority among native Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians. Under Soviet rule, the Russian minorities were not under any real or perceived threat (ATRISK2 = 0).

After the fall of Communism, Lithuania, together with the other Baltic states, opted for independence, provoking fierce opposition by its Russian and Polish populations who feared future discrimination in an independent Lithuania. The fears would prove largely unsubstantiated, however. After a series of violent confrontations in the early 1990s, Lithuania and Russia reached an agreement, Lithuania was recognized as an independent republic and the withdrawal of the Russian army from the area began (the withdrawal would not be finished until late 1993). Lithuania and Russia also reached an agreement regarding Lithuania's Russian minority. In July 1991, Lithuania introduced a generous citizenship law, granting citizenship to all Russians who were residents prior to the agreement. As a result, more than 90% of the Russian minority in Lithuania qualified for citizenship (ATRISK1 = 0, ATRISK3 = 0).

Compared to other Lithuanians, Russians living in Lithuania do not face any significant discrimination or disadvantage. The group is not subject to demographic or ecological stress (DEMSTR03 = 0; ECOSTR03= 0) and the minority policies adopted by the Lithuanian government are generally regarded as among the most liberal in the region (POLDIS98-03 = 0; ECDIS98-03 = 0).

Given the virtual absence of political or economic discrimination, the main grievances voiced by the group seem to be of a cultural nature. Perhaps due to a lack of group organization and cohesion, however, their demands do not seem to be coherently articulated at the moment. Conventional politics continues to be the main strategy for advancing group demands. Some of the most active political organizations acting on group's behalf currently are the Russian Union and Alliance of Lithuanian Citizens. In 2002, a group splintered from the Alliance of Lithuanian Citizens to form the Russian Alliance, which remained small and regionally concentrated in Klaipeda. There are also a number of organizations that focus on promoting Russian culture in Lithuania. Some of the most active ones include: Vilnius Russian Society, Center of Russian Culture, Russian Creative resources of the Baltics, etc. There have been no significant levels of protest by the group reported in the recent years (PROT98-03 = 0). Likewise, there was no rebellious activity by the group (REB98-03 = 0). Russian Federation continues to be the main outside ideological sponsor advocating on behalf of the group.

References

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