Jordan 'Green On Blue' Attack Likely Shows Islamic State Reach

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A Jordanian police officer, Captain Anwar Abu Zaid, shot dead two U.S. nationals, two Jordanians and one South African in an apparent "green-on-blue" attack at a police training facility to the east of the capital Amman on November 9. Several others were also injured before the shooter could be shot and killed. A relative was reported as saying that Abu Zaid, a 28-year old from a village in the northern governorate of Jerash, was "religious but moderate" (Jordan Times, November 10). Although no group has so far claimed responsibility for the attack, it was likely to have been either carried on the instructions of the Islamic State group or to have been inspired by the group's ideology.

Significantly, the attack took place on the tenth anniversary of al-Qaeda in Iraq's coordinated bomb attacks on three hotels in Amman on November 9, 2005 (Jordan Times, November 9). Those attacks killed 60 people, most of them when suicide bombers attacked a wedding, and were a seismic event in Jordan's modern political history, provoking a wave of revulsion in that country against al-Qaeda and against the use of suicide bombing tactics in general (BBC, November 10, 2005). That the latest attack fell on the anniversary of these bombings seems likely to have been intended to send a message to the Jordanian government and people. In particular, the 2005 attack was carried out by al-Qaeda in Iraq, which is effectively the predecessor of the current Islamic State group, which likely conducted the latest attack. Significantly too, one of the 2005 attackers, an Iraqi woman called Sajida Mubarak Atrous al-Rishawi, was captured when her suicide bomb belt failed to detonate. She was executed following the Islamic State's killing of captured Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh in January 2015, after that latter was shot down while conducting military operations against the group in Syria (al-Monitor, January 7). This latest attack can therefore likely be seen both as a reminder by the Islamic State of the continuing reach of the group into Jordan and as a belated response to Jordan's execution of al-Rishawi. At the same time, however, the shooters' decision to primarily attack a military target associated with the United States, is also telling and suggests that the Islamic State, if indeed they directed the attack, may not willing to risk provoking a backlash among Jordanian society as was caused by the 2005 attacks on hotels.

The recent attack is also a reminder that Jordan has been relatively quiet in recent years, despite its proximity to ongoing highly-active conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq and in nearby northern Sinai in Egypt. There are, however, a number of factors that could lead to further attacks, in both the short and longer term. For instance, despite growing at three percent this year, the Jordanian economy remains under enormous pressure due to the country's lack of natural resources and high levels of population growth; the unemployment rate reached an estimated ten percent and was over 20 percent in areas with high levels of refugees (al-Arabiya, May 17). Jordan's refugee population is estimated to include at least 600,000 Syrians as well as a large number of Iraqis, putting substantial strain on Jordan's infrastructure (UNHCR, 2015) Meanwhile, the country's political opposition is weak, and legal outlets for venting frustrations at economic problems remain sparse. The country also has a highly active Salafist movement, including prominent hardliners such as Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada al-Filistini, who have previously expressed support for a range of jihadist groups (including al-Qaeda), and there is the clear potential for such anti-Western preachers to either-deliberately or inadvertently-inspire disenfranchised individuals to conduct attacks within Jordan. In addition, Jordan has seen apparent attempts by Syrian-based militants to cross its borders, although most seem to have been prevented by the country's strict border controls, backed by the army's "shoot to kill" policy towards suspected infiltrators (Daily Star [Beirut], August 17). In this context, despite the Jordanian security forces' undoubted counter-terrorism competence, further attacks appear likely.