Mali: Islamic State Considers its Alternatives
| Publisher | Jamestown Foundation |
| Author | Alexander Sehmer |
| Publication Date | 11 November 2016 |
| Citation / Document Symbol | Terrorism Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 22 |
| Cite as | Jamestown Foundation, Mali: Islamic State Considers its Alternatives, 11 November 2016, Terrorism Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 22, available at: https://www.refworld.org/docid/582b2d1f4.html [accessed 3 November 2019] |
| Disclaimer | This is not a UNHCR publication. UNHCR is not responsible for, nor does it necessarily endorse, its content. Any views expressed are solely those of the author or publisher and do not necessarily reflect those of UNHCR, the United Nations or its Member States. |
Link to original story on Jamestown website
Islamic State (IS) has acknowledged a pledge of allegiance from a fledgling group of Islamist fighters in Mali following several recent cross-border attacks by the group, and as IS itself comes under pressure in Iraq and Syria.
On October 30, the IS Amaq news agency broadcast the pledge by Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, a former fighter with the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) and later with al-Mourabitoun. His so-called Islamic State in the Greater Sahara is behind two recent attacks in Burkina Faso: one in October on a military position near the northern border with Mali that killed five people, and one in September on a customs post in Markoye, which left two people dead (AP, October 12; Jeune Afrique, September 2; L'Info, September 6).
The acceptance of al-Sahrawi is something of a turnaround for IS. Previously, IS ignored a pledge he made in May 2015 as part of al-Mourabitoun (al-Akhbar, May 13, 2015). At the time, IS leadership likely saw little use for al-Sahrawi, and the al-Mourabitoun leader, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, disavowed the statement soon afterwards.
Possibly, the recent attacks have boosted al-Sahrawi's standing with IS. They earned condemnation – along with other attacks in the region – from the Economic Community of West African States (NTA, October 21). The attacks have also prompted Burkinabe forces with the UN mission in Mali (MINUSIMA) to redeploy closer to their home border (Sidwaya, November 6).
But IS likely has another reason. Its new willingness to welcome al-Sahrawi comes as it watches territory it controls in Iraq and Syria being slowly reclaimed. In his first statement in nearly a year, supposedly made as Iraqi forces press in on Mosul, IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi attempted to rally his supporters. However, he also hinted that IS "provinces" elsewhere, which he termed the "pillars of the caliphate," would have a greater role to play going forward (al-Jazeera, November 3).
As IS looks further afield, Mali in particular – where the government is struggling with Islamist attacks while trying to implement a shaky peace deal with rebel groups – looks promising (Sahel Intelligence, September 8). The Sahel has been largely dominated by al-Qaeda's affiliates, but that could change. Islamic State has already succeeded in coopting a faction of Boko Haram in Nigeria, splitting the group (see Terrorism Monitor, August 19). IS fighters fleeing the bombardment of Sirte in Libya could choose to move into Mali, and a recent supposed truce there agreed to by al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Dine could open up space for IS expansion.
As IS faces defeat in Iraq and Syria, its franchises in places like Mali – and elsewhere, such as in Yemen where it has a well-established foothold – will likely receive even greater attention.
