South Ossetia referendum plans raises temperature in the Caucasus

Sergei Blagov 9/18/06

The risk of a renewed conflict between Georgia and the Russian-backed separatist territory of South Ossetia appears to be growing by the day.

Talks aimed at achieving a political settlement of the conflict appear to have hit a wall. A scheduled session of the Joint Control Commission – comprising Georgia, Russia and North and South Ossetia – failed to convene as scheduled September 15 because of a dispute over the composition of the Georgian delegation. Since then, Georgian and South Ossetian officials have accused each other of trying to scuttle a peace settlement.

On September 11, South Ossetian leaders raised the temperature of the peace process with an announcement that they would hold an independence referendum in November. The referendum likely would have more of a symbolic than a practical significance, as even an overwhelming "yes" vote wouldn't generate international recognition of South Ossetian independence. At the same time, the referendum could possibly spark a resumption of armed conflict between Georgian and South Ossetian forces, some regional experts believe. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili engaged in some saber-rattling on September 18, voicing frustration over the peace process, according to a report published by the Civil Georgia web site. Saakashvili said he would use his scheduled September 22 speech at the United Nations General Assembly to tell "the truth about the situation in Georgia." He appeared to issue a direct challenge to Ossentian leaders, vowing that his administration would never abandon its goal of restoring Tbilisi's authority in the separatist territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"Georgia will no longer tolerate injustice and the infringement of our rights," Saakashvili said. "We will no longer step back or keep silent. Nobody has, or ever will intimidate us."

In response, both South Ossetian and Abkhaz leaders appeared to thumb their noses at Saakashvili by applauding a September 17 referendum in the Trans-Dniester region, where residents endorsed the concept of seceding from Moldova and the possible incorporation of the territory into the Russian Federation. "For us, this [the Trans-Dniester referendum] is a good example, and I am sure that our voting will not end with lesser results," Civil Georgia quoted Yuri Morozov, South Ossetia's self-styled prime minister, as saying.

Russian officials have been outspoken in their support of South Ossetia's referendum plan. The Russian Duma's speaker, Boris Gryzlov, said September 12 that Georgia's hard-line attitude toward the breakaway region was "forcing South Ossetia to hold the referendum." He indicated that the Duma would dispatch a delegation to monitor the independence referendum.

Russia, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, is on record as opposing any discussion of the so-called frozen conflicts of the Caucasus, as well as the Trans-Dniester conflict, by the UN General Assembly. Moscow also has rejected Tbilisi's efforts to promote international discussion on the role of Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The Russian government maintains that Tbilisi, Tskhinvali and Sukhumi are equal sides in the negotiation process, rather than looking at it as a "central government vs. breakaway provinces" situation. Tbilisi, meanwhile, wants the peace process to be seen as an internal affair of Georgia.

While supportive of South Ossetia, the Kremlin has kept its distance from the referendum issue. After announcing the referendum plan, South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity traveled to Moscow in search of political support. He met with prominent politicians, including Russian Communist Party boss Gennady Zyuganov, but members of President Vladimir Putin's administration publicly shunned him.

A cool reception by the Kremlin, however, doesn't mean that Russian leaders disapprove of the plan: they merely want, at this stage, to keep their options open, some observers in Moscow believe.

Putin himself has stated that if the former Yugoslav province of Kosovo can gain independence, so should Abkhaiza and South Ossetia be allowed to choose their own destiny. "One must not apply one rule in relation to Kosovo and another in relation to Abkhazia and South Ossetia," a Kremlin news release on September 13 quoted Putin as saying.

Some observers believe that the South Ossetian referendum is a trading chip in Russia's antagonistic relationship with Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In return for a pledge by South Ossetia to abandon the referendum plans, Russia would expect Tbilisi to back off from its threat of making a formal demand for the departure of Russian peacekeepers. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The problem is, the window of opportunity for such trade-offs may be closed. The lack of trust on all sides may run so deep that attempts at deal-making may have the opposite effect of stoking conflict.

Editor's Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.

Posted September 18, 2006 © Eurasianet