Global Overview 2015: People internally displaced by conflict and violence - South Asia

Figures and causes of displacement

As of the end of 2014, there were at least 4.1 million IDPs in south Asia, an increase of 1.8 million on the previous year. Pakistan accounted for 46 per cent of the region's displaced population, Afghanistan and India a fifth each, Bangladesh 10 per cent, Sri Lanka two per cent and Nepal one per cent.

The number of IDPs in Pakistan increased from at least 746,700 to at least 1.9 million as insurgency and counterinsurgency operations intensified, reversing a slow downward trend since 2009 when the end of year figure was 1.2 million.^[209] In Afghanistan, armed conflict, the activities of NSAGs – including targeted killings, kidnappings and the use of improvised explosive devices – and inter-tribal and other community disputes continued to drive displacement as in previous years. The number of IDPs increased from at least 631,000 to at least 805,400.^[210]

The figure for India increased from at least 526,000 to at least 853,900 mainly as a result of inter-communal violence.^[211] Small-scale inter-communal violence continued to cause displacement in Bangladesh, but the number of people affected is not known. The increase in Bangladesh from up to 280,000 to at least 431,000 is not the result of new displacement in 2014, but rather our inclusion of more than 151,000 Urdu speakers forced to flee in 1971, who were not previously considered IDPs.^[212] The estimates for Nepal and Sri Lanka are the same as in 2013.

The data available on displacement varies considerably from one country to another, depending on the level of monitoring by national authorities, civil society groups and international organisations, and media coverage.

The number of IDPs in Pakistan's north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is based on the number of families UNHCR registers on behalf of the provincial authorities.^[213] Not all IDPs are captured, however, and others remain registered despite no longer being displaced. Insecurity restricts humanitarian access, meaning that profiling data does not cover all IDPs nor all areas affected by displacement.^[214] Information on Balochistan province comes from media sources. KP, FATA and Afghanistan are the only areas of south Asia for which data disaggregated by sex and age is available. It indicates that the displaced population is made up of more men than women and more children than adults.^[215]

In Afghanistan, UNHCR provides monthly updates on the number of IDPs profiled, but they tend to underestimate the true situation because not all are interviewed immediately after their flight, the result of resource constraints and insecurity that prevents access to some areas. IDPs may only be profiled a couple of months after their displacement, once their areas of refuge become accessible to humanitarians, if they are profiled at all.^[216]

In Sri Lanka, UNHCR's last compilation of local government statistics dates back to December 2012. It is also likely to be an underestimate, because in 2010, a year after the end of the conflict, the government began deregistering IDPs without determining whether or not they had achieved durable solutions. Deregistration continued in 2013 and 2014, resulting in very low official figures.^[217]

In Bangladesh and India, neither the government nor international organisations provided comprehensive displacement data for 2014. Estimates rely on information from local NGOs and media, which tend to focus on individual events and only report numbers immediately af- ter people flee their homes. They rarely provide information with which to assess how IDPs' situations evolve over time. The premature closure of camps in India prevented the collection of data beyond the emergency phase. Our 2014 figures for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka are based wholly or partly on past estimates, in part because of the lack of new information and in part because the situations in each country make it unlikely that IDPs have achieved durable solutions.

Displacement in the region is driven by armed conflict and generalised violence, such as inter-communal clashes to which minority groups in Bangladesh and India are particularly exposed. In Afghanistan, NSAGs took effective control of more territory, particularly in rural areas of the south and east of the country. Government forces partially contained their expansion. Insecurity in the country as a whole worsened as the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) drew to an end, and the number of civilian deaths increased by 25 per cent compared with 2013.^[218] This made access to IDPs more difficult, particularly in the south and east. In Pakistan, NSAGs sought to expand their power bases and territorial control in 2014, and government forces pushed them back.

Most IDPs in Bangladesh and India belong to ethnic or religious minorities. In Bangladesh, indigenous people in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Hindus and Buddhists across the country were particularly affected by inter-communal violence, but the number of people newly displaced is not known.^[219] Armed gangs also attacked Hindus and indigenous people during the January 2014 presidential elections, leading to some displacement, but again little information is available as to its extent.^[220] In India, Adivasis and Muslims in western Assam, where both are local minorities, were disproportionately affected by inter-communal violence.^[221]

Land issues were also a significant driver of past conflict in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and failure to resolve them has led to displacement becoming protracted. The same is true of other issues, including inter-communal violence.

Disasters triggered by natural hazards displace hundreds of thousands if not millions of people each year in south Asia. It is not unusual for people already displaced by conflict to be affected, making their situation more precarious still, but the numbers involved are not known.

New displacement and displacement patterns

New displacement in the region increased fourfold, from 328,000 in 2013 to more than 1.4 million in 2014. As in the previous year, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan accounted for all new displacement, and figures for each country increased. Pakistani military operations against insurgents in FATA's North Waziristan and Khyber agencies caused the largest new displacements of the year, with up to 907,000 people forced to flee their homes compared with 140,000 in 2013.

In India, at least 345,000 people were newly displaced, five times as many as in 2013. NSAG violence targeting Adivasis in western Assam was responsible for the vast majority of new displacement, forcing 300,000 to flee their homes in December.^[222] The remainder were displaced by inter-communal violence in western Assam in May, along Assam's border with Nagaland in August and by cross-border skirmishes between India and Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir in October and December.^[223]

Armed conflict between Afghanistan's armed forces and ISAF on the one hand and various NSAGs on the other displaced at least 156,000 people, up from 124,000 in 2013. As in previous years, most of the new displacement took place in the south and east, but there was also an increase in central areas of the country.^[224]

With the exception of 104,000 IDPs in Pakistan who returned during the year, most of those newly displaced in the region were still living in displacement at the end of 2014. IDPs tended to seek refuge near their places of origin, with most in India fleeing to camps within or near their home districts. The majority of IDPs from North Waziristan and Khyber moved to nearby districts in KP province. Most chose to stay with host communities rather than in camps, in part because taking refuge in government-run sites makes them a target for NSAGs. In Afghanistan, IDPs took shelter with host communities or in informal settlements. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, most were living outside of camps including with host communities.

There is evidence to suggest that significant numbers of IDPs flee to urban areas, but they are not systematically monitored and as such it is impossible to estimate the number of people involved across the region as a whole. In Afghanistan, however, 40 per cent of the country's IDPs, or more than 322,000 people, make up part of the urban poor in Kabul, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad and Kandahar. They perceive urban areas as relatively safe and as providing better access to infrastructure and livelihoods. People who have undertaken some form of migration, be they IDPs, returned refugees or economic migrants, make up the majority of the population in these cities.^[225]

Protection issues

Threats to IDPs' physical security varied both between and within countries in 2014. In Pakistan, NSAGs targeted displacement camps because they are government-run. In May, June and September, such attacks killed and injured IDPs in two camps in the Peshawar and Hangu districts of KP. The Hangu attack forced the majority of the camp's population to seek temporary refuge elsewhere.^[226]

In Bangladesh, simmering tensions linked to unresolved land issues periodically lead to clashes that affect IDPs. In the Chittagong Hill Tracts, displaced indigenous people were injured and arrested in June following clashes with the paramilitary forces that evicted them from their home area. The same month in Dhaka, slum residents including IDPs from the country's Urdu-speaking minority were killed and injured, allegedly as part of a campaign to forcibly evict them.^[227]

IDPs across south Asia lack access to drinking water, food, sanitation, shelter, education, livelihoods and tenure security. Those living in informal urban settlements in Afghanistan are worse off than others among the urban poor in terms of access to food and livelihoods. This is particularly true for people recently displaced, as they have little access to local networks that might enable them to borrow money to make up for the shortfall in their incomes.^[228]

Members of minority groups are often discriminated against during their displacement. Despite their Bangladeshi citizenship being officially recognised since 2008, displaced Urdu-speakers living in urban slum-like settlements still have difficulty in obtaining passports because their addresses give away their ethnicity and the fact that they are displaced.^[229] In Sri Lanka, ethnic Tamils make up the overwhelming majority of IDPs, with some Muslims also still displaced. Both groups are minorities and the government has not prioritised a response to their needs, prolonging their displacement.^[230]

Durable solutions

There was little progress towards durable solutions across the region in 2014. Continuing insecurity in Afghanistan and Pakistan rendered returns to many areas of origin unsustainable if not impossible. No returns were documented in Afghanistan, though there were reports of short-term displacement followed by returns in insecure areas without humanitarian access. No further information was available.^[231] The presence of landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) prevent many IDPs from returning, and clearance teams are among those NSAGs target, making their work more dangerous still.^[232]

In Pakistan, 104,000 IDPs moved back to their places of origin during the year, including 45,000 people displaced from North Waziristan in January and March 2014 who returned soon afterwards.^[233] It is unclear, however, whether any returns were sustainable given continued insecurity and the extent of damage and destruction in some areas. Further counterinsurgency operations in North Waziristan forced more people to flee from May through to the end of the year, this time in much larger numbers.^[234] More than 24,000 IDPs displaced from Khyber in 2012 returned in May, but counterinsurgency operations from October onwards caused further displacement. Many who had returned to the agency since 2008 were forced to flee their homes for a second time.^[235]

The majority of IDPs in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka live in protracted displacement, and in the absence of systematic monitoring, progress towards durable solutions is difficult to assess. Evidence suggests, however, that obstacles remain, including continued inter-communal tensions and violence in north-eastern India and Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts.

In Sri Lanka, the scale of the military presence in the north of the country and state surveillance of Tamil civilians have made it more difficult for IDPs and those who have returned since the end of the conflict in 2009 to re-establish sustainable livelihoods and rebuild their lives.^[236] It is hoped that the change of government in January 2015 may help to facilitate durable solutions.

Authorities in Afghanistan, particularly at the provincial level, have not helped IDPs to integrate locally, despite the majority expressing a preference to do so and the inclusion of all three settlement options in the country's policy on displacement.^[237] In other countries of the region, IDPs' settlement preferences are not known.

Tenure insecurity is also an obstacle to the achievement of durable solutions. In Afghanistan, addressing disputes through formal and customary justice mechanisms at the local level remains a challenge, and discrimination makes it particularly difficult for displaced women to exercise their housing, land and property rights.^[238] Urban IDPs in Afghanistan and those in both rural and urban areas of Bangladesh live with the threat of forced eviction, because their tenure has not been formalised.^[239] In Sri Lanka, the occupation and acquisition of IDPs' land by the state continues to prevent returns and prolong displacement. Tenants displaced from the land and homes they had been renting have not been compensated.^[240]

National and international response

The responses of the Indian and Bangladeshi governments to displacement caused by conflict and inter-communal violence were ad-hoc and piecemeal in 2014. Responses across the region tended to focus on emergency assistance rather than the establishment of conditions that facilitate durable solutions.

Afghanistan's government adopted a comprehensive policy on displacement in February 2014, but following contested presidential elections in April and delays in the formation of a unity government, the dissemination and roll-out of the policy through workshops and sensitisation with local stakeholders only started in selected provinces in the autumn.

Some countries have been reluctant even to acknowledge displacement caused by conflict and violence, which has prevented them from developing comprehensive frameworks for response. Sri Lanka's resettlement policy, for example, focuses only on the emergency phase and is not in line with international standards. It has languished in draft form since 2013, and the last government did not carry out or support a comprehensive assessment of the country's IDPs. India and Bangladesh received international support to respond to displacement caused by disasters during the year, and in the case of India, also for some caused by conflict and violence. Local NGOs are largely left to assist those affected on their own, but their capacity to respond is limited.

International humanitarian organisations continued to support national and local authorities on the ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan, coordinating their response through the cluster system and, in the case of Afghanistan, a working group and task forces on IDPs. Insecurity and restricted humanitarian access, however, prevented a needs-based response in many cases.

Funding for international humanitarian work has also been dwindling. While 67 per cent of funding for the 2014 strategic response plan for Afghanistan had been covered by the end of the year, the total amount of funding requested was the lowest since 2002.^[241] The national demining programme, which is crucial to the achievement durable solutions, is also chronically underfunded.^[242] A lack of funding for programming in Pakistan means that both international aid and government assistance tend to prioritise people newly displaced over those living in protracted displacement, perpetuating the latter's plight.^[243]

Most existing development programmes and frameworks, including those of regional and international bodies such as the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and UN development agencies, fail to mention durable solutions for IDPs. The exception is Afghanistan, which has received more official development assistance than any other country worldwide each year since 2007. UNDP's draft country programme for 2015 to 2019 lists IDPs among its beneficiaries and plans measures including livelihood support to help them achieve durable solutions.^[244] Afghanistan is also a pilot country for the UN secretary general's framework on ending displacement in the aftermath of conflict, but ongoing fighting and displacement seriously hampered its implementation.

International humanitarian organisations continued to reduce their presence in Sri Lanka in 2014, and development work, including that taking place under the under UN's development assistance framework for 2013 to 2017, continues to focus on populations and areas affected by conflict rather than on IDPs themselves. This despite a recommendation to the contrary by the special rapporteur on IDPs' human rights in June.^[245]

In Bangladesh, neither the local consultative group made up of government, international development partners and UN agencies for the country-wide coordination of development work nor the Chittagong Hill Tracts development facility managed by UNDP included a focus on displacement or durable solutions.

209 IDMC, Pakistan IDP figures analysis, available at: http://goo.gl/c2X5Yr; IDMC, PInternal Displacement: Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2009P, May 2010, p.82, available at: http://goo.gl/l1AWHf

210 UNHCR, Afghanistan: Monthly IDP update, 1-31 December 2014, 31 December 2014, p.5, available at: http://goo.gl/nRH2OZ. It is important to note that these estimations resulting from assessments and profiling only cover areas accessible to humanitarian actors. In addition, the estimated number of people displaced in 2014 may slightly increase in the first months of 2015, as the assessments and profiling still capture some displacement which happened during 2014.

211 IDMC, India IDP figures analysis, available at: http://goo.gl/PKtlgJ

212 IDMC, Bangladesh IDP figures analysis, January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/yCycg7; IDMC, Bangladesh: comprehensive response required to complex displacement crisis, 19 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/cUoOMg

213 IDMC uses a family size of 5.2 to calculate the number of individual IDPs in Pakistan's KP and FATA

214 The Internally Displaced Person (IDP) Vulnerability Assessment and Profiling (IVAP) project carries out profiling of IDPs in FATA and KP. See the project's website at https://www.ivap.org.pk/

215 UNHCR, KP and FATA IDP statistics, 31 December 2014

216 UNHCR, Afghanistan: Monthly IDP update, 1-31 October 2014, 31 October 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/11sNrY

217 IDMC, Submission to 112th session of the UN Human Rights Committee for October 2014 Sri Lanka review, 12 September 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/Z70arW; IDMC, Sri Lanka IDP figures analysis, February 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/vydBTK

218 UNAMA, Afghanistan: Annual report 2014: Protection of civilians in armed conflict, February 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/Fv4UJn

219 IDMC, Bangladesh: comprehensive response required to complex displacement crisis, 19 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/qtXIaS

220 Ibid

221 Adivasi refers to long-term residents of India's north-eastern states who belong to the Santhal, Oaron, Munda, Kharia, Shawra, Bhumij, Bhil and Ho ethnic groups, which have their origins in central India. IDMC, "This is our land": Ethnic violence and internal displacement in north-east India, November 2011, available at: http://goo.gl/HwjrG6

222 ACHR, Assam: The largest conflict induced IDPs of the world in 2014 reel under a massive humanitarian crisis, 2 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/RgMjB7

223 AFP/Reuters, Troops deployed as tribal rampage leaves 32 dead in northeastern India, 4 May 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/E81Ssj; Al-Jazeera, Army called in after deadly India violence, 21 August 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/V6xuBC; Reuters, India-Pakistan clashes escalate into a humanitarian tragedy, 10 October 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/iC6lMI; BBC, Kashmir: Civilians flee as border fighting continues, 6 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/ARSwBk

224 UNHCR, Afghanistan: Monthly IDP update, 1-31 December 2014, 31 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/nRH2OZ

225 IDMC and NRC, Still at risk: Security of tenure and the forced eviction of IDPs and refugee returnees in urban Afghanistan, February 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/kzzg5u; OCHA, Afghanistan 2015 Humanitarian Needs Overview, 26 November 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/4JHKaQ; Samuel Hall, Urban Poverty Report, November 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/Ah3l58

226 Express Tribune, At least 4 killed, 11 injured in Peshawar suicide blast, 11 May 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/3RD7ix; OCHA, Pakistan: Humanitarian Snapshot Internal Displacement North Waziristan, 23 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/YmSbGA; The News, Eight killed, 12 injured in Hangu IDPs camp blast, 29 September 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/yVs01O

227 Daily Star, 21 Adivasi families become homeless, 14 July 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/MJczG0; Al-Jazeera, Clashes at Bangladesh refugee camp kill nine, 14 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/CI4Lp5; New Age, 10 dead in arson attack on Mirpur Bihari camp, 15 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/V888LP; Redclift, Life, death and land, 22 July 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/dx1NRm; Daily Star, Motive to grab camp's land, 19 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/08VLFi

228 Samuel Hall, Urban Poverty Report, November 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/IykPm8

229 New Age, Biharis kept waiting for passports, 17 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/nncpP6

230 IDMC, Sri Lanka IDP figures analysis, February 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/ZOxkD8

231 IDMC, As humanitarian space shrinks, IDP policy must be implemented, 19 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/BQmEiP

232 Guardian, Afghans live in peril among unexploded Nato bombs that litter countryside, 29 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/oEe3KN; MACCA, Macca strongly condemns attack on deminers in Helmand province, 14 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/egBXBd; MACCA, A year of loss and tragedy for the mine action programme of Afghanistan, 20 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/5nVOiN

233 OCHA, Pakistan: Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 27: 19 May-19 June 2014, June 2014,available at: http://goo.gl/Lehquv

234 PRCS, PRCS IDPs NWA Operation Situation Report no.13 1808-14, 18 August 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/pkG1LD

235 OCHA, Pakistan: Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 31: OctoberDecember 2014, 16 December 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/4Pn1WH

236 IDMC, Submission to 112th session of the UN Human Rights Committee for October 2014 Sri Lanka review, 12 September 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/LIzGjR

237 Samuel Hall, Urban Poverty Report, November 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/16ZWPA

238 NRC, Strengthening displaced women's housing, land and property rights in Afghanistan, 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/9fWFOi

239 Samuel Hall, November 2014, op. cit.; IDMC, As humanitarian space shrinks, IDP policy must be implemented,19 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/NbHA3N; IDMC, Bangladesh: comprehensive response required to complex displacement crisis, 19 January 2015, available at: http://goo.gl/M4AYp5

240 IDMC, Submission to 112th session of the UN Human Rights Committee for October 2014 Sri Lanka review, 12 September 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/zjZlWw; IDMC, Almost five years of peace but tens of thousands of war-displaced still without solution, 4 February 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/tKF5iq

241 Financial Tracking Service, Afghanistan 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/PcK0m7

242 Samuel Hall, Mine action in Afghanistan: A success story in danger, 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/fdYYNZ

243 UNHCR/Protection cluster, Protection cluster detailed assessment areas of return and areas of displacement, KP FATA, Pakistan, 31 May 2014, pp.19-20, available at: http://goo.gl/LNN2f4

244 GHA, Afghanistan beyond 2014: Aid and the Transformation Decade, November 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/DE6dUR; UNDP, Draft country programme document for Afghanistan (2015-2019), DP/DCP/AFG/3, 4 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/LnhH7c

245 UNGA, Report of the Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, Chaloka Beyani: Mission to Sri Lanka, 5 June 2014, available at: http://goo.gl/rUOE3l; UN and Government of Sri Lanka, 2013-2017 UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF), 4 October 2012, available at: http://goo.gl/yI1yTR