Refugees Daily - Internal Global Press Review

N'DJAMENA A rebel leader in Central African Republic, who declared an autonomous state in territory under his control this month, said on Tuesday he has dropped his opposition to pivotal elections set for this weekend.

Noureddine Adam, who heads the FPRC faction of the former Seleka rebel coalition, had been dubbed "enemy number one" by the government, which had called for his arrest over his attempts to block the polls.

If followed through upon, the about-face, announced following days of talks in neighboring Chad, would remove a major obstacle to presidential and legislative elections on Sunday seen as a crucial to ending years of bloodshed.

"Our movement pledges to offer its positive and sincere contribution ... so (elections) can be held in calm, serenity, without violence and with strong citizen participation," read the statement distributed by Chad's presidency, which participated in the talks.

Adam was second-in-command of the mainly Muslim Seleka rebel coalition, which seized power in the majority Christian nation in early 2013, toppling then-president Francois Bozize.

Their abuses sparked reprisals by Christian anti-balaka militias, plunging the former French colony into a cycle of inter-religious violence that has killed thousands and led to de facto partition.

Bozize, who has lived in exile mainly in Uganda since he was deposed, saw his candidacy for the election rejected by the constitutional court earlier this month.

He still has support among many Central Africans however, particularly in the southwest. And on Tuesday his Kwa Na Kwa (KNK) party threw its support behind the candidacy of Anicet-Georges Dologuele, a move likely to significantly bolster the former prime minister's chances.

"We are going to do what we can so that you win the election in the first round," said KNK secretary general Bertin Bea. "You have the support of the party, the support of activists and the support of President Francois Bozize."

The government that succeeded Bozize issued an international warrant for his arrest, accusing him of crimes against humanity and incitement to genocide during his decade in power, allegations he rejects. He is also subject to a United Nations travel ban and asset freeze.

"With this agreement, you join in the possibility of returning to the management of power," Dologuele told Kwa Na Kwa members following the announcement of the deal.

Elections in Central African Republic have faced repeated delays. A constitutional referendum – the first step in a process of holding presidential and legislative elections to restore democratic rule following two successive transitional governments – was held on Dec. 13.

Some 93 percent of voters cast ballots in favor of the new constitution, paving the way for the polls, though turnout was just 38 percent, the elections commission said on Tuesday.

Around one in five Central Africans have fled violence in the country which is rich in diamonds, uranium and gold – assets coveted by the rival factions as well as foreign interests. The fighting began as clashes between rival militias and degenerated into a conflict between Christians and Muslims.

(Additional reporting by Crispin Dembassa-Kette and Sebastien Lamba in Bangui; Writing by Makini Brice and Joe Bavier; Editing by)
 

UNITED NATIONS |
The Security Council has added two more people to a United Nations blacklist for attempting to undermine the transitional government of the Central African Republic and inciting violence against Muslims in the conflict-torn nation.

According to an announcement dated Dec. 17, the council's Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions committee added Haroun Gaye and Eugene Barret Ngaikosset and they are now subject to an international travel ban and assets freeze.

The former French colony descended into chaos in March 2013 when predominantly Muslim Seleka rebels seized power in the majority Christian nation, triggering reprisals by "anti-balaka" Christian militias who drove tens of thousands of Muslims from the south in a de facto partition.

The sanctions committee said on its website that Gaye, leader of an armed group in Bangui's PK5 district, was listed due to his links to acts "involving sexual violence, targeting of civilians, ethnic- or religious-based attacks, attacks on schools and hospitals, and abduction and forced displacement."

It said he has repeatedly supported anti-balaka elements to foment chaos in PK5, where thousands of Muslims are surrounded by Christian militias, and that he was involved in an attempted coup backed by supporters of former President Francois Bozize aimed at toppling the transitional government.

The committee said Gaye met in October with Ngaikosset, a "member of a marginalized anti-balaka group" and the other individual blacklisted last week, to plan an attack on Bangui.

In May 2014, the committee imposed its first targeted sanctions by blacklisting former Bozize and two other men.

In August, the council blacklisted the Belgian branch of CAR's diamond trading company and three more people linked to the conflict. There are now seven people and one entity blacklisted over the war.

Thousands have died and around one in five Central Africans has fled violence. Fighting that began as clashes between rival militias has degenerated into a conflict between Christians and Muslims.

The country is rich in diamonds, uranium, gold, oil and other assets which are coveted by the rival factions as well as by foreign interests.

Separately, the council's Panel of Experts that monitors compliance with the CAR sanctions said in its latest report that prospects for peace "remain remote."

It said diamond-buying houses have not taken action to reduce the risk of financing ex-Seleka elements while anti-balaka groups still engage in "taxation and racketeering", are present at several diamond mining sites and have obtained mining licenses.

(Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Alistair Bell)
 

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the presidential election is set for November 2016.

Political opponents and activists say that everything is in place for President Joseph Kabila to extend his stay in power, thus violating the constitution and potentially precipitating the continent-sized central African country into chaos.

"What we need is to have a specific action plan for the elections," says Serge Syvia, a doctor and activist. "Because theirs (the government's) is already being implemented."

In a small wooden house that was built, like much of the eastern city of Goma, on dried lava rocks, members of a youth group called Lucha (struggle for change) are holding a meeting.

Lucha has a core of about 50 members and a few hundred sympathisers.

They believe in using non-violent protests to demand basic rights like running water, security and justice.

Currently, three of their members are in prison: one for taking part in a workshop in the capital Kinshasa on youth and democracy and two others for organising an outdoor tribute with candles and photos to victims of an armed group, based near the border with Uganda, which massacres people with machetes.

The government's spokesperson has in the past called Lucha members terrorists and Goma's mayor has banned their activities.

Increased repression

Why are they scared of a small, unarmed movement of young activists based over 1,500km from the capital?

"For us, the lowly people, there is nothing here and they know this, so when one of us raises a finger to protest, because they are very rich in vocabulary, they call it 'an attempt against state security'," says another member Aline Mukovi.

There is also the fact that, a year ahead of the planned election in DR Congo which should, if all goes according to the law, bring about regime change, the powerful are on edge.

In January, at least 30 were killed in the country's capital Kinshasa, according to the UN, after the police brutally repressed demonstrations against an electoral bill.

For opposition politicians and activists, that bill was part of the "plan" to which Mr Syvia referred.

It has become known here as the "glissement" or the slippage of the election dates.
Term limit debate flares across the region:

Rwanda held a referendum last week which voted overwhelmingly for the country's current leader, Paul Kagame, to stay in power, potentially until 2034.

In October, a similar referendum has already made it legal for Denis Sassou Nguesso, in the Republic of Congo, to run again in 2016. He has been in power for a total of 31 years. Protests against the constitution change were brutally repressed.

Uganda is also about to go to the polls in February 2016, Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for nearly 30 years, is running again. Term limits were scrapped by parliament in 2005.

Burundi was just recovering from a civil conflict when president Pierre Nkurunziza announced he would run for another term, violating the peace agreement that ended the war. Hundreds have died since. There has been an attempted coup and a rebel movement has formed.

Under the current constitution, President Joseph Kabila must stand down in December 2016, when his second five-year term ends.

The bill would have tied the election date to the completion of a nationwide census, which could have taken years.

At least 649 people – many protesters, activists and political opponents – have since been detained, according to a UN report published this month.

It found "the shrinking of democratic space was a likely to impact the electoral process".

Critics believe interfering with the process by silencing critical voices is precisely the government's intention.

'Ploys to stay in power'

The controversial clause in January's electoral bill was scrapped as a result of the protests, but opponents say several other ploys to push the election back are in motion.

First, there's the complexity and the cost of the votes. In theory five sets of local elections need to be organised before the presidential poll.

Local civil society groups accuse the electoral commission of intentionally dragging its feet to organise local polls and to be "illegally linking the organisation of the election to a national dialogue".

Mr Kabila called for a countrywide dialogue last month, saying on national television that it was only way to avoid a crisis and to revive the electoral process.

Critics see it as a strategy to try to co-opt political opponents with positions or money.

Kabila also hinted at the possibility of an indirect or an electronic vote in the presidential election, to save money, which some say would make rigging the poll easier.

He has not directly commented on suspicions that he might be trying to cling to power.

Peace or elections

But the spokesman of the ruling party, André-Alain Atundu, said that it would take "two to four more years to organise credible elections".

Sources close to Kabila say that, as the man who secured an important peace deal in the early 2000s following years of civil conflict that killed millions, he genuinely feels the country could implode if he were to leave at the end of next year, especially without having organised a successful dialogue.

There are still dozens of armed groups with ties to politicians in the east of the country and the army's own loyalties are divided.

"Opposition leaders have said president Kabila should be judged by the International Criminal Council," said one source close to him. "That is hardly the language of appeasement."

It is true the country is still fragile. But it is difficult to see how the president staying on would guarantee peace.

The January riots were an indication of how the streets might react to an attempt to hold on to power.

Activists believe violence would escalate if the election deadline is missed.

The powerful and historically political Catholic Church has already called on the Congolese people to oppose any attempt to violate the constitution.

Bishops said the country's situation was worrying and reminiscent of past wars and bloodshed caused by "power being seized by force and exerted against the common good".

The international community does not seem to know what to do. "We just have no leverage. We have carrots, but no sticks," a UN employee admitted.

The UN peacekeeping mission's newly-appointed leader's brief is basically to rebuild a relationship with a government that has been cutting the mission off from both political discussions and military operations for months.

A matter of principle

"No one will fight this one for us," says Luc Nkulula, a lawyer and member of Lucha, perched on the leg of an armchair as he addresses his colleagues about their plans.

He believes that at the moment priority is a change at the top.

He isn't convinced that any of the potential opposition candidates would be any less corrupt or even more likely to bring more stability to the troubled east, but it's a matter of principle: upholding the constitution and ensuring accountability.

He also doubts that the majority of the population will never understand, even less adhere, to Lucha's non-violent activism. He fears extreme violence on both sides and worries that weakest will suffer the heaviest losses.

"But," he says, "the alternative to this struggle in a country like Congo is not being able to look at yourself in the mirror."
 

Boko Haram was recently rated as the world's most deadly terrorist organisation – eclipsing even so-called Islamic State (IS) – but it is far from the only jihadist group posing a threat to stability in Africa.

Based on the situation reports we receive every few days from the Nigerian military, troops are active in destroying dozens of Boko Haram camps.

Suspected terror "kingpins" are often arrested and abductees freed. Army press releases also include photographs of the aftermath of these operations.

There has been significant progress in slowing down the killings by the insurgents and keeping them from openly holding territory – considering that this time last year the sect controlled much of the north-eastern state of Borno.
That, however, should not be seen as weakness o
n the part of Boko Haram.

Its attacks continue sporadically across the region, both in the form of bombings and raids on both military and civilian targets.

The Nigerian authorities must be wondering how this group is able to replenish its weaponry and get its members still to continue audacious and deadly attacks.

Across the border, Cameroon's Rapid Response Force (BIR) has also suffered major setbacks in the fight.

President Buhari has admitted his target to end the conflict by the year's end was too optimistic
Nigeria cannot afford to ignore the large number of insurgents – or the tactical capabilities present within their ranks.

With the continued violence, President Muhammadu Buhari has accepted that the target he set for the military to end the conflict by the end of the year is not achievable.

In a statement, he said: "The timeframe should serve as a guide and if exigency of multiple operations across the country advises a modification, the federal government will not hesitate to do so in order to address new flashpoints that are rearing their ugly heads in some parts of the country."

Jihadists join forces

Nigeria's neighbours in the Lake Chad Basin are also struggling to keep jihadist factions at bay.
The vast Sahel region, which spreads coast to coast across a band of northern Africa, is itself a haven for armed groups from bandits to global extremist franchises.

Among the latter is al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), which seemed to be on the back foot, but has recently seen a mending of relations between its offshoots.

Its leader Abdelmalek Droukdel recently announced that AQIM was working with al-Mourabitoun – led by the veteran Algerian jihadist Mokhtar Belmokhtar – to fight against France and its allies in the region.

Two Jihadist groups have claimed responsibility for the attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako
This comes after they claimed to have jointly planned the November attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali's capital Bamako.

This alliance is important for both groups to keep IS from attempting to spread its dominance from North Africa to the Sahel.

"IS interests in the region have become strong enough that dissenting parties within the AQIM constellation are willing to put aside their grievances and collaborate once again to protect their own interests," says Yan St-Pierre of the international security-consulting group MOSECON.

"This means AQIM will be more aggressive, not necessarily in terms of attacks, but in announcing its presence."

Both groups are competing globally and are likely to attempt to outdo each other even in Africa.

One theatre where this could be seen is in Somalia, where the al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group al-Shabab has been witnessing dissent within its ranks as some of its members pledge their allegiance to IS.

Since 2006, al-Shabab has been the source of instability in the Horn of Africa but as fresh fissures become increasingly apparent within the group, this fragile nation could potentially be home to two global jihadist movements.

However the number of defections to IS so far is not yet significant enough to change the scene.

The core al-Shabab remains the major threat in the region and the reason for the international military intervention, hence why IS has consistently sought to win them over with its propaganda.

Counterinsurgency needed

As groups in the Sahel and the Horn decide which terror franchise they will sign up to, there is a great need for robust counterinsurgency efforts.

Military might is vital in the response but evidently has only produced limited results – despite the involvement of world powers like the US and France – and even though it could achieve a lot, people within African armies often point to the challenges in the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan as examples as to why it is difficult to suppress insurgencies.

That, however, should not be a dead end – as if Washington's methods are the only way to go.

African governments and their partners should not underestimate the ideological angle – assuming that jihadist insurgencies are driven solely by poverty, even though that is itself an important factor.

As has been seen elsewhere in the world, recruitment into jihadist groups (and sympathy for them) is not exclusive to the marginalised.

As things stand, terrorism will remain in Africa for at least the near future.
 

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Nigerian soldiers fired on unarmed Shiite children with no provocation before unjustified raids that killed hundreds of the minority group in the West African nation, Human Rights Watch said Wednesday.

The charges come as the guardian of Nigeria's estimated 80 million-plus Muslims, Sultan Muhammad Sa'ad Abubakar of Sokoto, warned the government against actions that could radicalize other Muslims in a country that already has lost 20,000 lives to the Boko Haram Islamic uprising.

Human Rights Watch said Wednesday it doubts the Nigerian military's version that raids over three days on three Shiite locations in northern Zaria town followed an attempted assassination of the army chief.

Nigeria's military said raids Dec. 12-14 came after Shiites tried to block the convoy of Gen. Tukur Buratai.

"It is almost impossible to see how a roadblock by angry young men could justify the killings of hundreds of people. At best it was a brutal overreaction and at worst it was a planned attack on the minority Shia group," said the Africa director of Human Rights Watch, Daniel Bekele.

The New York-based group said the army's version "just doesn't stack up."

As many as 1,000 people may have been killed, rights activists say, sparking protests in Nigeria's mainly Muslim north that spread to Tehran, the Iranian capital, and New Delhi in India.

The group's leader, Iran-influenced Ibraheem Zakzaky who dresses like an ayatollah, suffered four bullet wounds, according to family doctors, and is among scores detained.

His Shiite Islamic Movement in Nigeria said Tuesday that people wounded in the attacks are dying in military and police detention because they are being denied medical care.

Spokesman Ibrahim Musa also said the Kaduna state government has taken over from the military in destroying property of the movement, estimated to have 3 million followers. He said a school and cemetery were bulldozed Monday.

"The history of the circumstances that engendered the outbreak of militant insurgency in the past, with cataclysmic consequences that Nigeria is yet to recover from, should not be allowed to repeat itself," warned a statement Monday from the sultan of Sokoto, who is president of the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs.

Boko Haram re-emerged as a much more violent entity after security forces attacked their mosque and compound and killed about 700 people in 2009 including leader Mohammed Yusuf, a breakaway follower of Zakzaky.
 

Somalia is no longer a failed state but a recovering fragile country, the top UN official for war-torn Somalia has said.

In the last three years the country has stabilised but there is still a lot of work to do, Nicholas Kay, the outgoing representative for the UN Secretary General in Somalia, told The Associated Press.

"The country in the past two-three years has come together quite significantly. It is both politically stable and developed as well," he said.

Somalia's Islamic extremist insurgents, al-Shabab, who are allied with al-Qaida, will not succeed in undermining the progress being made but the prospect of some members shifting allegiance to the Islamic State group is a real concern, Kay said.

Somalia has been torn by decades of conflict since the 1991 ouster of long-time dictator Siad Barre by warlords who then turned on each other. Somalia had transitional administrations from 2004 but it did not have a functioning central government until the 2012 election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Somalia's weak UN-backed government is struggling to rebuild the country but insecurity caused mainly by al-Shabab remains its greatest challenge.

Kay says the political process in Somalia is successful with political leaders of the country engaging in political dialogue and negotiations with each other.

"These are not armed warlords fighting each other on a clan basis," Kay said. "They are presidents of interim regional administrations who are more willing to sit and talk than use a barrel of a gun. In so, they are contributing to peace in the country, not to the fragmentation of the state as in the old days."

Kay said the parliamentary and presidential elections that are set for 2016 will take place and he expects leaders to respect the constitutional term limit of four years after they made firm commitments to do so. Somali leaders are currently discussing how elections will be held.

President Mohamud in June had ruled out the possibility of holding a vote with public participation in 2016, citing security challenges stemming from the Islamic insurgency. Opposition parties charge that his government is taking advantage of poor security to extend its mandate through postponement of elections.

In 2012, Somali elders were tasked with naming the parliament since no election could be held, given the state of security around the country.

Somalia's Parliament then elected a new president. Analysts criticized the system. The International Crisis Group then described the selection of Somali parliamentarians as undemocratic, "with unprecedented levels of political interference, corruption and intimidation."

"Some elders allegedly nominated uneducated and objectionable individuals, some sold seats to highest bidders, and others even nominated their own family members," the International Crisis Group said then.

Al-Shabab was forced out of their strongholds, including Mogadishu, the capital, by African Union troops and Somali forces, but the insurgents still carry out attacks. Lately, the Islamic extremists have been targeting hotels where government officials and Somalis from the diaspora looking to invest in the country congregate.