Truck bombing shows Chechen conflict entering new phase

Mike Redman 5/13/03

The May 12 truck bombing in northern Chechnya offers evidence that the separatist struggle has entered a new phase, with Chechen fighters increasingly resorting to suicide missions. The tactical shift, some political observers contend, is indicative of the growing influence of radical Islamic ideology over Chechen separatist forces.

The death toll from the bombing outside a government compound in Znamenskoye climbed to 54 on May 13. More deaths were expected, as 57 of the over 80 wounded were listed in critical condition. Russian officials have attributed the blast to suicide bombers. Beyond that, investigators are still trying to reconstruct the sequence of events leading to the explosion.

The Znamenskoye blast marks the deadliest attack by Chechen militants, the likely perpetrators, since the December bombing of the pro-Moscow Chechen administration building in Grozny. That the Znamenskoye explosion occurred so close to May 9, celebrated in Russia as Victory Day, is not especially surprising. Indeed, attacks over the Victory Day period have plenty of precedents. For example, an explosion during a parade in the Dagestani town of Kaspiisk in 2002 killed more than 40 people. In 2000, security forces discovered an improvised device in Makhachkala's central square only hours before the Victory Day parade.

What is significant is the fact that separatist fighters are moving away from the use of timed or remotely detonated devices to stage attacks. While these devices have the potential to cause heavy casualties and great panic without endangering those who detonate them, they are often prone to failure.

The three biggest attacks carried out by separatists since last October – the Znamenskoye and Grozny explosions, along with the Moscow theatre hostage crisis [for background see the Eurasia Insight archive] – all employed so-called smertniki units, or suicide fighters. Some security experts believe the suicide missions underscore that separatist forces are increasingly Islamicized. It also suggests that Islamic militants – including some driven out of Afghanistan by the US-led anti-terrorism campaign – may be exerting greater influence over the conduct of the separatist struggle. If proved to be the case, this could significantly raise the stakes for the republic's security environment.

Russian, US and European officials have long worried that international terrorist groups and Islamic militants would become attracted to the turbulent Caucasus. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy in early May raised fresh concerns about the presence of operatives from al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden's terrorist organization, in the region. In addition to Chechnya, international attention has focused on the Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, which borders Chechnya and has been utilized as a safe haven by Chechen militants. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Georgian government officials have heatedly denied an al Qaeda presence in Pankisi. At a May 8 news conference, Georgian Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili insisted that "there are no al Qaeda members or other terrorists in the gorge." However, Narchemashvili went on to say that "some persons on the international list of wanted criminals" may be in the gorge. Meanwhile, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze proclaimed security conditions in Pankisi to be "absolutely normal," the Interfax news agency reported.

Whatever the influence of foreign Islamic radical elements – either in the Pankisi Gorge or in Chechnya itself – it is clear is that the Chechen separatist movement is increasingly moving away from a rural-based insurgency. Ambushes and engagements against Russian federal forces proved to be too costly in terms of casualties, while producing negligible tactical or strategic advantages. Terrorist acts of the sort carried out recently can have a far more considerable impact, for relatively little loss in separatist personnel terms.

Despite the security audit launched by federal authorities in the wake of the December 2002 attack in Grozny, militants are clearly still able to take advantage of the low morale and poor pay among security forces in order to gain access to their targets. With this fact in mind, it could be only a matter of time before Chechen separatists start mounting attacks against targets across southern Russia.

Posted May 13, 2003 © Eurasianet