Assessment for Russians in Belarus

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Russians of Belarus have no risks of rebellion and only minimal likelihood of protest. In fact, the group continues to be the advantaged minority, and is not discriminated against in any obvious way. The current regime of Alexandr Lukashenko is decidedly pro-Russian economically, politically, and, in many ways, culturally, ensuring little difficulty for the ethnic Russian minority. The closeness of Russian and Belarusian culture and languages, along with the strong affinity and even identification which many Belarusians hold for Russia and the former Soviet Union seem to diminish the likelihood of ethnic strife even further. Also weighing in against potential threats to Russians is the dependence of Belarus on the Russian Federation for energy and trade. The recent moves towards economic and monetary union with Russia will only increase this dependence. While there is always the possibility for Belarusian nationalism to become heightened, this is unlikely to find a political voice or state support under the current regime. For now, aside from a few movements pushing for use of the Belarusian language in addition to Russian, few see such nationalism becoming aggressive due to the current regime and what may be an indifference by many Belarusians about their own culture and language.

Nevertheless, the whimsical, personalistic, and highly repressive rule of the Belarusian President Lukaschenka has already generated a significant amount of criticism, especially concerning further integration between Russia and Belarus. Repeated acts of repression against demonstrators seem to be adding fuel to Belarusian nationalism, which may, in the future, lead to a popular backlash against the Russian minority.

Analytic Summary

Geographically dispersed throughout the country (REGIONAL = 0; GROUPCON = 0), Russians of Belarus represent an advantaged minority. Although there are linguistic and cultural differences between Russians and Belarusians (LANG = 1, ETHDIFXX = 3), during Soviet rule these differences became increasingly blurred. As a result, most Belarusians identify themselves closely with the Russian Federation.

Historically, Belarusians are descended from Slavic tribes which migrated into the area from Central Europe during the sixth century CE. By the ninth century, the Principality of Kiev had subordinated many principalities in BelarusBelarus and following the Mongolian Invasion of the thirteenth century, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania annexed them. During this period, the Belarusian people began to diverge linguistically and culturally from their Slavic kin to the south and east. During the eighteenth century, Russia under Catherine the Great had developed expansionist designs on the area and under the Final Partition of Poland, Belarus came under the control of the Russian Empire. From 1856 to 1906, the Belarusian language was banned from print and instruction by St. Petersburg. However, during this period, the essentially agrarian nature of Belarusian culture survived. During this period, Belarusians were largely peasants, while the aristocracy was made up of Poles and Jews. Urban areas were dominated by these two groups, though Russians began to play a larger and larger role in governing the country through the late 19th and early 20th centuries. During the turmoil of World War I and the Russian Revolution and Civil War, the Rada (a Belarusian nationalist council) declared independence (December 1917). Few paid any attention to this event and following the Russo-Polish War of 1919-1921, the territories of Belarus were divided between Poland and the Soviet Union. Within the Soviet system, Belarus became the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (BSSR) and was allowed to expand considerably. In 1939, the lands which were ceded to Poland in 1921 were absorbed into the BSSR.

Major demographic changes occurred during and after World War II. The large Jewish population was virtually annihilated by the Nazis (many were also evacuated from the territory prior to the German invasion). Following the annexation of western Belarus to the Soviet Union, many Poles moved west to Poland-proper, thus decreasing the large Polish minority. At the same time, many Belarusians are said to have migrated into Belarus (from Poland and Lithuania). After the war, Russians were sent to the BSSR to take up positions in the government and bureaucracy. Thus, during this relatively short period, the demographic make-up of Belarus was severely altered to have a stronger Belarusian majority with a large Russian minority. Even in the cities, Belarusians came to make up a majority by 1959.

During the period 1921 to 1979, the division between Belarusian and Russian became blurred. Soviet census figures show that of the former Soviet republics, Belarus has consistently had the highest proportion of Russian speakers (outside of Russia itself) and the highest rate of mixed ethnicity marriages. As a result, most Belarusians identify themselves closely with the Russian Federation (in a 1991 referendum, 80% of Belarusian voters preferred to remain a part of the Soviet Union). The 1980s and 'glasnost' saw a revival of Belarusian nationalism, though it was largely limited to an historical and cultural revival and its popularity was minimal. As a result there is a general lack of a distinct cultural identity for Belarusians. A 1993 opinion poll found that around 20% of "ethnic Belarusians" did not consider Belarusian their "native language". This has created an environment without a clear boundary between the Belarusian and Russian identities.

Russians living in Belarus do not face any significant discrimination or disadvantage, and the minority policies adopted by the government are inclusive (POLDIS98-03 = 0; ECDIS98-03 = 0, ATRISK1 =0, ATRISK2 = 0). Absent any kind of official discrimination, the Russian group's demands and grievances do not seem to be clearly articulated at this point. There are a few conventional Russian political parties advocating on group's behalf, including the Brotherhood of Slavs, and the Russian National Unity party. The group exhibited very low levels of protest during the 1990s, and no protest over the last few years (PROT90x=1, PROT98x=1; PROT00-03 = 0). The group has also benefited from ideological support from the Russian Federation.

References

Keesing's Record of World Events, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994.

Ustina Markus, "Neighbors see a 'Weak Link' in Eastern Europe." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 2, no. 49, 10 December 1993.

--, "Belarus: Slowly Awakening to New Realities." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, no. 1, 7 January 1994, pp.42-46.

--, "Conservatives Remove Belarusian Leader." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, no. 8, 25 February 1994, pp.13-18.

--, "Belarus." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, No. 16, 22 April 1994, pp.9-13.

Irena Maryniak, "Language and the Nation." Index on Censorship, Vol. 22, no. 3, March 1993, p.6.

Lexis-Nexis, various articles 2001-2003.

Graham Smith, ed., The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union, (New York: Longman) 1990.

RFE/RL Various reports 2001-2003.

U. S. Department of State, "Report of Human Rights in Belarus" 1993, 2000-2003