Assessment for Serbs in Macedonia

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Serbs in Macedonia do not have a history of rebellion or protest against the government in Skopje, except for the period of the Kosovo conflict when the Serbs in Macedonia accused the government of being pro-Albanian. They are more numerous in the northern part of the country, but their numbers are small. Several political parties claim to represent the Serbs in Macedonia, but at times the members of the minority vote also for the bigger Macedonian parties. The Macedonian regime has been faced with several international crises, the most threatening remaining the war in the neighboring Kosovo. Additionally, in 2001 faced an internal crisis as the ethnic Albanian NLA led an insurgency against the government. Since that time, the Macedonian government has undergone significant reform improving minority rights. There has been no government repression against the Serbs.

The government in Skopje has been resilient in the face of external threats to democratic stability. The successive cabinets in Skopje have tried to initiate measures that respect the rights of the Serbs, in close cooperation with Belgrade. Although conflicts were the norm in the Former Yugoslavia, the Macedonian Serbs were not directly affected.

There is no significant risk for protests. The Serbs in Macedonia enjoy numerous cultural and administrative rights and have not suffered from repression, even during the transition period.

Analytic Summary

Serbs officially living in Macedonia constitute 1.78% of the population and are situated mostly in the Northern regions of the country, close to the border with Serbia (GROUPCON = 1). They speak a Slavic language, distinct but similar to Macedonian (LANG = 2), and share with the majority population the same Eastern Orthodox Christianity (BELIEF = 2). In the past they were partially considered an advantaged minority since they exerted authority over what today is called FYROM since the beginning of the 20th century, first in the framework of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes and after the WWII in the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. During communist rule, Macedonians studied Serbo-Croatian and had close ties with Belgrade, which were maintained even after 1991, the year of the Macedonian independence.

The Serbs in Macedonia benefit from education in their mother tongue, TV and radio programs sponsored by the Macedonian government and are represented at local levels of administration (POLDIS03 = 0; ECDIS03 = 0). Following the 2002 elections, Serbs are also part of the ruling national coalition. Most of their cultural needs are supplied by contact across the border with Serbia. Because of the war in Kosovo several thousand Serb refugees came in 1999, but most of them repatriated either to Kosovo or to Serbia proper. There is no persecution or repression by the government; the greatest danger for the group remaining its small number and the difficult relationship with another minority within Macedonia, the Albanians.

The Serbs demand more attention for their cultural rights. However, at the top of their agenda lays the desire to be protected from the Albanians, as incidents of occurred in 2000 and 2001 (COMCON00-01 = 1). The tensions between these two groups mirror the relationship they maintain in Kosovo. During the NATO attack against Serbia, the government of Macedonia has been accused of serving the interests of the Albanian minority and protests ensued in favor of the Serbs living in Serbia. However, no incidents were reported in 2002 or 2003 (COMCON02-3 = 0).

The most active Serbian party in Macedonia is the Democratic Party of the Serbs in Macedonia (DPS), the organizer of the protests against NATO during the 1999-2000 military actions in Kosovo. There are other organizations as well, but with smaller number of adherents. The DPS maintains close contact with the cabinet in Belgrade, who supports the demands of the Serbs living outside the borders of the Yugoslav federation.

Before the Kosovo crisis, the Serb minority in Macedonia had not been engaged in protest or rebellion against the government (PROT90X = 0, REBEL90X = 0). The explosion of the Kosovo situation propagated itself in Macedonia, where the relationship between Serbs and Albanians deteriorated and where the government was accused by the Serbs to be impartial in the favor of the Albanians (PROT00 = 1). However these protests were not aimed at correcting a domestic problem but were acts of support for the Serbs in Serbia. Low-level protest continues, primarily regarding Serb language rights (PROT01-03 = 1).

References

US Department of State Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1990-2003 (all published the February following the year which they cover).

Lexis/Nexis: All news files: 1990-2003.