Victory Over Boko Haram Continues to Elude Nigeria

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Nigeria's conflict with the Boko Haram Islamist militant group continues to be marked by a mix of successes and setbacks, with the group continuing to prove itself an adaptable and wily adversary. For instance, in the last few weeks, the government has scored a number of considerable localized victories against the group. On September 23, the government announced that its troops had continued to advance against Boko Haram in parts of Borno State, the longstanding heartland of the group's Islamist insurgency. The government claimed to have captured the group's "kingpin" in the area, Bulama Modu, arrested 43 suspected militants, freed 241 women and children being held prisoner by the militants and seized arms and ammunition (Premium Times [Abuja], September 23). Separately, across the border in northern Cameroon on the same day, Cameroonian forces said they had killed 17 suspected militants in a series of operations (Punch [Lagos], September 23).

Simultaneously, the Nigerian government has continued to give the impression that the defeat of the group is imminent. A senior presidential advisor, on September 23, tweeted a message ascribed to the country's president, Muhammadu Buhari, that: "Boko Haram's reign of terror in parts of the country will be finally over very soon as the ongoing military onslaught against the terrorist sect will continue relentlessly until total victory is achieved" (Twitter, September 23; Punch [Lagos], September 23). Similar rhetoric has come from the ministry of defence. Colonel Rabe Abubakar, the ministry spokesperson, in response to an apparent audio message released by Boko Haram leader Abubakr Shekau, said that: "Our candid advice to Shekau or his ghost, cohorts or impersonators is to toe the line of their fellow comrades and surrender now as there is no more hiding place for him or his criminal gang to operate freely," adding that the "era of cheap propaganda is over and in no distance time Nigerians and the whole world will know who is saying the truth" (Premium Times [Abuja], September 22).

On the ground, however, evidence of solid Nigerian gains against Boko Haram are harder to find. On September 20, the group carried out one of its most significant attacks in months, killing around 85 people in the northeast city of Maiduguri, in Borno State (Vanguard [Lagos], September 21). The attacks mainly targeted a mosque and people watching a football game on television. In further evidence that the group remains strong in Borno State, the government banned the use of cars, public transportation, donkeys and camels in the state over the Eid al-Adha Islamic holiday in order to reduce the potential for militant attacks (BBC, September 24). Moreover, in addition, between July and August, the Nigerian authorities arrested 20 suspected Boko Haram leaders in southern parts of the country, suggesting that the group may be planning to extend its operations to these regions, including the economically critical city of Lagos, which have largely been unaffected by the conflict so far. A Department of State Service (DSS) spokesman said that "the sudden influx of Boko Haram members into Lagos State points to the determination of the sect to extend its nefarious terrorist activities to the state and in fact, other parts of the country" (This Day Live [Lagos], August 31). In a further indication that the government's offensive is not going entirely as well as advertised, the government has also floated the idea of negotiating with the group, or potentially releasing some prisoners, in return for the release of the schoolgirls who were kidnapped from Chibok in May 2014 (Punch [Lagos], September 16; The Nation [Lagos], September 22).